Oracle-Google Patent War May End With A Whimper

Those expecting a major hit to Google (GOOG) earnings from Oracle's (ORCL) copyright and patent suits concerning Java may be disappointed.

Speculation from last year, that Oracle (or Apple (AAPL)) might be able to drive Google out of the Android business, or take all possible Android profits away from it, seem to be overblown.

The rough justice of the patent courts don't provide such black-and-white verdicts when big companies clash, so legal trends are bullish for Google in the long run, bearish for Oracle, Apple (AAPL) and any other large companies that think patents can drive out competition.

Money will likely change hands at the end of the Oracle-Apple fight. In other words, but not enough to matter in the long run.

Florian Mueller of Fosspatents reports that a trial on Oracle's Java copyright and patent claims is now due to start March 19. In response to my questioning, he added that this is pretty quick justice for the Northern District of California.

The trial will be in three parts, the first covering copyright, the second patents, and the third all other issues. But it will be put to one jury and testimony will only be given once, then referenced. The jury will be allowed to hear the status of patent re-examinations against Oracle going on concurrently. The order also follows a procedure favored by Google, and Oracle has seven days to object. What's most interesting is Mueller's conclusion:

Oracle might prefer to accept Judge Alsup's ruling and try to seize this opportunity to have the case resolved in the reasonably near term.

Mueller believes that Oracle has a strong case, because of how Google treated the Java code when it was controlled by Sun Microsystems, which Oracle now owns. But Oracle's demands for $6 billion in damages, later reduced to $2 billion, then $1.16 billion, may now be subject to a settlement at a fraction of that figure.

To put it in perspective, Google's quarterly revenues are currently running at around $9 billion. Yes, $1 billion would be a big chunk of change, but it would be far from fatal, and might ? like Time Warner's purchase of AOL back in the day, set a maximum price on patent actions that will pop the litigation bubble.

Disclosure: I am long GOOG.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/317687-oracle-google-patent-war-may-end-with-a-whimper?source=feed

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